[讨论] 20121015 YYB日间灌水

cellphone

高开。空，多半会补。

多方夜盘偷袭，历来是惯用的技俩。FA，TA没有改变。

cellphone

盘前：CPI报告后美股期指走高
http://www.sina.com.cn  2012年10月15日 20:56  新浪财经微博
　　新浪财经讯 北京时间10月15日晚间消息，周一美股期指小幅走高。美国9月零售额环比增长1.1%。10月份的纽约制造业指数(922.442,-4.95,-0.53%)连续第三个月萎缩。

　　美东时间10月15日08:55(北京时间10月15日20:55)，道琼斯工业平均指数期货上涨48.00点，报13305.00点，涨幅为0.36%；纳斯达克(微博)100指数期货上涨19.00点，报2729.00点，涨幅为0.70%；标准普尔500指数期货上涨6.90点，报1428.40点，涨幅为0.49%。

　　在中国公布了好坏参半的经济数据之后，周一亚洲市场走低。欧洲股市周一上涨。

　　周一早间公布的数据表明中国消费者价格指(CPI)数增幅符合预期，生产者价格指数(PPI)跌幅大于预期。周末公布的数据证实中国的贸易盈余超出预期。

　　GFT Markets公司的市场策略师法瓦德-拉扎克扎达(Fawad Razaqzada)表示：“中国经济数据可能会稍微减轻华尔街的压力，但事实上他们只是没有让人失望，并没有杰出的表现。”他认为中国周四将要公布的经济增长数据更能说明状况。

　　上周美股表现为四个月来最差，全周道指收跌2.1%，标普500指数收跌2.2%。

　　经济数据面，美国商务部宣布美国9月零售额环比增1.1%好于预期。9月零售额环比增长1.1%。据彭博社调查，经济学家平均预期为环增0.7%。8月零售销售环增1.3%。

　　此前接受MarketWatch调查的经济学家平均预期9月零售额增长1.1%。

　　纽约联储宣布，10月份的纽约制造业指数从9月份的-10.4下降至-6.2，低于市场平均预期的-4.4。这是该指数连续第三个月萎缩。

　　美国商务部将在美东时间周一上午10点公布。

　　企业财报方面，上周五摩根大通银行(JPM)与富国银行(WFC)的财报某些方面令人失望，导致上周五银行板块承压。

　　周一盘前，花旗银行(C)宣布第三财季每股收益15美分，销售收入近140亿美元。

　　嘉信理财公司(SCHW)也将在周一公布财报。

　　美国移动服务运营商Sprint Nextel(S)股价攀升，此前日本软银公司(Softbank)宣布将收购前者70%的股份，交易价值约200亿美元。

　　纽约商业交易所黄金期货价格下跌16美元，报每盎司1744美元。原油期货价格下跌10美分，报每桶91.67美元。(张俊)

cellphone

Diver，不小心将你的开帖删了。本来准备删俺的

cellphone

麻烦再贴一下

Diver

This morning’s trade saw mixed action in Asian markets following the weekend’s heavy dose of China data that saw September exports up nearly 10% YoY and inflation tamer than month earlier results, off August’s 2% pace at a 1.9% rate, but September’s loan activity less than expected. China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.3%, but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.1%. Bargain hunters drove Japan’s Nikkei 0.5% higher, as traders were also encouraged by remarks from the Bank of Japan that suggested yen intervention possible. South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.4%; Australia’s S&P/ASX 500 edged 0.1% lower.

Diver

European bourses were on firmer footings ahead of the week’s European Union summit, although concerns still permeated markets on the potential of a Spanish bailout request and resolution of Greece’s appeal for its next tranche of aid. On Friday worries mounted on reports that finance ministers at Tokyo’s IMF/World Bank meetings focused on the ESM’s ability to meet a funding request from Spain, should a full bailout be requested. However, sentiment improved after various officials claimed other means available to increase the European Stability Mechanism’s (ESM) capital holdings.

Diver

European traders found the weekend China data more encouraging than their Asian peers, also hopeful that last week’s soft US equity showing might prove a breather in the recent rallying action. Among the major indices, the French CAC is 1.2% higher with the German DAX up 0.8% and UK FTSE 100 up 0.5%. The broad gains are extending into non-core nations’ exchanges with Spain’s IBEX 35 0.8% higher and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 1.2%.

Diver

So too US futures point to higher Monday beginnings, with the DJIA futures trading 0.4% higher, the S&P500’s up 0.5%, and NASDAQ’s up 0.6%. The week’s calendar of macroeconomic data will cover a wide range of items including manufacturing, housing, consumer prices and consumer spending.

Diver

Today’s calendar includes September retail sales (estimated up 0.7% versus 0.9% prior) and sales ex-auto (estimated up 0.6% versus 0.8% previous). The October report on New York manufacturing is forecast to remain negative, although less so, with the Empire Manufacturing post forecast at -2.8 versus -10.4 prior. On Friday the Philly Fed is set to report its latest manufacturing data, expected improved at a still-minus 0.1, but improved from September’s -1.9 print. A post on business inventories may show August stockpiles 0.5% higher, slowing from July’s 0.8% rise.

Diver

Diver，不小心将你的开帖删了。本来准备删俺的
cellphone 发表于 2012-10-15 09:28

    never mind.

Diver

Investors: What Are You Most Afraid Of?

After sprinting to new highs the stock market has stalled out. In fact, it has recently been retreating in the face of improving economic numbers.

Why is that?

Which answer you believe to be the cause for the recent market pullback?

1) European Debt & Recession

2) Slowing of Chinese Growth

3) Fiscal Cliff

4) None of the Above: This is just a consolidation period before moving to new highs.

Diver

回复 11# Diver


    ZT from pro:

I think the answer is 4. Meaning this is just a consolidation period before the next move higher. That move may have to wait til after the election. And really it doesnt matter who is elected for it to keep going higher.

I know that answer is not well liked in some circles. But this is not a politically motivated statement. It is just a statement of fact which is more important than who I may want to get into office.

Remember the stock market has gone up nearly 100% under President Obama. And historically there is a slight edge for the stock market during Democrat Presidencies (but not a large enough spread to brag about). So there is no reason to believe it will collapse just because he is elected again.

And no problems from a Romney administration either in terms of what that would mean to the economy or market in the months/years ahead.

Its just the uncertainty of who will win that may put the market on pause. Then I think we start heading higher. Especially if there is some traction on the Fiscal Cliff. If that becomes a political mess, then markets will probably push back a bit more. Hopefully our elected officials have better sense than that (a 50/50 coin toss on that one).

Diver

Investors: What Are You Most Afraid Of?

After sprinting to new highs the stock market has stalled ...
Diver 发表于 2012-10-15 10:02

zt:

#3 Fiscal Cliff is the most common response. And none of the above- just a consolidation before next move higher is in 2nd place.

And yes, investors may be reticent to bid up stocks more if the Fiscal Cliff is left untamed and it sends us into a recession.

I think we are in good shape here...at least on the tax side.

If Obama gets re-elected he has already pledged to leave the tax breaks in place for 98% of taxpayers.

If Romney is elected he says he will keep the Bush tax breaks and then trim another 20% from the rates for all taxpayers.

The above already takes a lot of potential sting out of the Fiscal Cliff. To be honest, I dont want them to undo the spending cuts. Our government does not have a revenue problem...its spending. At most I want them to re-consider where cuts take place. But the size of the cuts should stay in tact.

You see we need to trim down our debts now with rates super low. Because when they go higher and our debt is as bloated, then we become a PIIG like those other European nations.

黄老泻

欧洲还在忽悠发展中国家买欧债，可惜大家越看越清楚，中国绝不会再买1毛钱的欧债了。

aimei

谢谢