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标题: [技术分析] Perfect Wave - 2011-Q3 [打印本页]

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-1 23:40 标题: Perfect Wave - 2011-Q3

I am starting a new thread for 2011 Q3 (Jul - Sep), including EUR, SP, Gold, and JPY. My wave counts of last quarter can be found from:
http://www.yayabay.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=124382

Elliott Wave reference can be found from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

My labeling for wave degrees in different time frames:
Monthly – [[[I]]], [[[II]]], [[[III]]], [[[IV]]], [[[V]]], [[[A]]], [[[B]]], [[[C]]]
Monthly – [[I]], [[II]], [[III]], [[IV]], [[V]], [[A]], [[B]], [[C]]
Weekly – [I], [II], [III], [IV], [V], [A], [B], [C]
Weekly – I, II, III, IV, V, A, B, C
Daily – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, c
Daily – _1, _2, _3, _4, _5, _a, _b, _c
Hourly – __1, __2, __3, __4, __5, __a, __b, __c

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-2 00:16

SP Monthly :: Where We Stand at Now

Comments are welcome!

作者: tfmegatron 时间: 2011-7-2 01:00

俄就喜欢这样大开大合，厚厚!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-2 01:01

This is a discussion from some other forum:

The market in different stages have different behaviors. When we see sideway movement, the market is in a consolidation stage, which is corresponding to EW's corrective waves. After a corrective wave, the market resumes the trend with a impulsive wave. At the end of a trend, the ending impulsive wave fails, and the a reversal comes after that.

...
One thing puzzled me is on EW charts, I seldom see the market in range, always up and down. From my observation, market can just trade sideways for sometime after a big run and resume the trend, not necessary get busted.
...

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-2 01:49

This is a discussion from some other forum:

Good question! Counting waves is a very subjective thing. Given a chart, there are infinitely many ways of counts. It's like asking people about a Monet's paint the question that what the paint is good or bad at. There is no right answer. A bull's eyes see everything bullish, while a bear's eyes see everything bearish.

Let me explain that with this intraday chart. You can see there are 3 segments from 05/02/2011's high to 06/16/2011's low. I labelled that as wave-1, 2, and 3 (of course that labelling was incorrect as of today's market). Say, 123 could also be abc, right? Yes! It turned out yes. But at the end point of wave-3 we did not know if there would be a wave-4 forming or a new wave-abc up. What to do? We need to know our bottom line. My bottom line was when I saw the first surge on 06/16/2011, I assumed that wave-3 (or wave-c) was completed. So I liquidated all my short position. At the same time, we also needed to know what if the market was actually reversing. If we did not do something, then it would leave us 乾瞪眼 if the market reversed. Right? Yes! That's why I started taking light long position. We counted from 06/16/2011's low as either the starting point of wave-4 or a reversal. The high on 06/22/2011 finished either wave-4.a or wave-a (of the reversal). The low of 06/23/2011 finished either wave-4.b or wave-b (of the reversal) which gave us anther good opportunity to add up long position with minimal risk. Notice that I labelled a wave-4 on 06/29/2011? That was the last chance for the bear if the market ever wanted to go down. After that, the market was no longer in 12345 down wave pattern. Again, in order to trade with wave, we need to know where we stand at and what our bottomline is. I never wanted the market to go up this way because I was very bearish. The only reason that I took long position is to prevent from 乾瞪眼 in the WHAT IF case.

看不懂。。要不你就这十天图来讲讲那一段算corrective, 那一段算implusive?
...

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-7-2 11:05

这些数字是你标上去的吗?

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-2 13:26

这些数字是你标上去的吗?
not4weak 发表于 2011-7-2 11:05

妳說揑?

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-2 20:21

07/02/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-3 12:26

This is a discussion from some other forum:

Thanks for commenting. As I said that EW is a TA approach. As a TA approache, nothing is guaranteed. EW deals with price action/pattern/behavior. EW is easy to understand but hard to master.

这个E Wave 在外汇市场上是被广泛应用，不过据我观察，基本上 50－50，事后诸葛亮。这些东西就是偶尔很好用（比如 02年的大盘就很是按它走的）多数的时候不灵光。问题得关键是你事先不知道啥事后灵光，啥时候不灵。

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-3 12:27

This is a discussion from some other forum:

Thanks for commenting. Yes, I agree that "日元下到80以下不容易". I've lost a lot of money on Yen last week. About "欧元上1.5有有疑问", I don't know. If one established a long position last Monday, s/he can lay back and take it easy to watch to see if EUR will break out the triangle or not. That comes to the question whether prediction is more important or trading strategy is.

日元下到80以下不容易，也就地震那几天，现在可不大有这个机会

同理，我也对欧元上1.5有有疑问

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-3 12:29

This is a discussion from some other forum:

Thanks for commmenting. I agree that "心理暗示更大一点". No matter what market direction that EW predicts, it should never override a well proven trading strategy.

Also when we see a Monet's painting or a Da Vinci Code whatever and find something match our trading strategy, we will have more confidence to place heavy bet. Otherwise, a normal or light bet will apply.

... 我也觉得是心理暗示更大一点。读图靠经验和pattern

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-3 13:48

This is a discussion from some other forum:

It's actually not "复杂". You can find from the web a lot of EW references. It is as simple as 12345abc. If you are doing "短期交易", wave patterns still can be observed in a hourly chart or even 5-min chart. Inside a super wave (e.g., tsunami), there exists some huge waves, ... and a small wave consists of many micro waves, and so on and so forth. Again the trading strategy is more important than prediction. Discipline is above anything.

这东西太复杂了，我弄几年了还没弄太明白，而且短期交易会受到影响。有bias就不好飞苍蝇了。

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-3 14:07

Some people feel that MA is easier to follow while some use other approaches. I've used ALL kinds/types of TA approaches, but EW is the only one that I've been using for the past more than 15 years after throwing away all other TA stuff. Oh I forgot to say that I also use Gann, moon phase, seasonal trend, cycle, and volume in the analysis. Basically I threw away any TA stuff that is mathematically calculated.

作者: aimei 时间: 2011-7-3 20:40

Frog is learning thanks
guts feeling is to buy dip

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-6 22:01

07/06/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-10 12:15

07/10/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-12 23:28

07/12/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-16 18:10

07/16/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-17 12:58

This is a discussion from some other forum:

Since you ask for comments here are mine:
I find Elliot Wave absolutely useless as a predictive tool. ...

Yes, I agree with you that EW is a predictive tool. Don't you think that all FA or TA approaches are predictive based what has happened? For example, when a market retreats from over-bought back to some MA, say 4/9/18, we might assume that if the MA is still moving up and then it will be a good opportunity to buy dip. That buy-dip is based on the prediction that the market will go up again. If one does not know how to use MA, MA becomes "useless". Same as EW, in order to utilize EW to trade, one needs to understand EW first.

... It is imprecise both in terms of price and time and is always subject to more than one (often contrary) interpretation. How often do wave counts have to be re-numbered?
...

Good point! Talking about being imprecise, EW is one of the tools that provides the most precise predition - both in price and time. (Another tool is W.D. Gann. Cycle is kind of OK in time prediction but it has no idea about price.) A wave segment's movement involves price action/behavior and time needed to travel. Can you tell me something that can predict price and time? Talking about renumberring the wave, it has to be done whenever it is needed. It's like when you are driving and hit a red light, the red light tells you that you got to stop, would you stop? As long as there is no red light (wave behavior changing), there is no need to stop (to renumber the wave count).

...
I can see that there is some relevance in using it as a descriptive tool regarding what has happened, but do not see how it is possible to use it to make correct investment or trading decisions....
...

Again, a tool is useful when you know how to use it. Some friends use MA only and make good profit from it. About using EW for trading, EW can provide a precise target (both in time and price) for a wave movement for one to take profit (or establish position), and also EW can tell one when the existing position needs to quit, if the current wave count is invalid, so people can easily place a stop order at some meaningful point (with minimal risk).

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-23 15:04

This is a discussion from some other forum:

good effort

realy i thank you

could you please just explain to me what did you mean by

a , b , c , d in first chart !

as i know there is no D in Elliott Wave Principle

Do you mean it is impuls ?

thank you again

To answer your question, yes, the principle does have wave-d and wave-e. They occurs mostly in triangles, includuing Ending Diagonal (wave-5), Contracting Triangles (wave-4/2), and Expanding Triangles (wave-4/2). No they are not impulsive waves. For the Ending Diagonal (wave-5), the market is weakening so there is not enough power to form the 3rd implusive wave in each segment.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-23 15:10

07/23/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: aimei 时间: 2011-7-24 00:34

so rocky
~v`
zzzzzzzzzzzz..............

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-27 21:12

07/27/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-30 01:43

07/30/2011

We have completed a monthly bar for July this weekend, so my weekly post is monthly chart instead of daily one. Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-30 14:30

This is a discussion from some other forum:

金子到 1200？ that is impossible

If you trade FX, you know that anything is possible. When Hunt brothers cornered silver and the market surged to $50, nobody believed that silver would eventually collapsed to $5. The following are two posts that I saw gold to reach $1400 in 2010 when it was $800-$900 in 2009:

http://groups.wenxuecity.com/discussion.php?gid=921&pid=46979
http://groups.wenxuecity.com/discussion.php?gid=921&pid=49654

I firmly believe that everything is conspiracy and the market is just a tool for insiders to collect money from the innocent general puplic.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-30 20:25

This is a discussion from some other forum:

黄金的价格是有基本面支持的 ... 现在的买家跟hunter 坐庄银子时候是不一样的。
...

I agree what you say as the status quo but not the future. You've seen Taichi diagram, right? So called 物極必反 or 強弩之末 explains that no tree can reach the moon. I don't rule out gold's further going up to double, triple, ... etc. the current value, but the wave count tells me that a big *correction* is due. Note that I am saying *correction* because in the wave's spiral, a correction implies future growth because it is not a self destruction.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-31 13:43

This is a discussion from some other forum:

... 但那将是买实物黄金的好机会。把手上的纸币换成实物肯定不会错的。

That could be the case but is not necessarily true. When gold hit $850 (spot) record high on 01/21/1980 in London at PM Fix (倫敦金下午定盤價), everyone thought that it would continue going up infinitely. Then the truth was that the next bull market came after almost 20 years of tumbling down till 1999 August when price was around $250. I really don't know if a huge pulling back is a good opportunity or a hot potato until the wave structure tells me.

作者: moonpig 时间: 2011-8-7 14:09

有新的路线图更新吗？准确率很高啊，就看spy能不能真的上1400了

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-8-7 14:30

08/07/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-8-7 15:08

有新的路线图更新吗？准确率很高啊，就看spy能不能真的上1400了
moonpig 发表于 2011-8-7 14:09

moonpig - Thanks for checking out my posts. I thought I have been posting and talking to myself. It seemed nobody paid any attention on my posts. Thanks for kind words. We will see if a short term bull can be formed or not ...

作者: moonpig 时间: 2011-8-7 15:34

我一直都看您的图的，受益匪浅。感觉目前，就看美国政府采取什么政策，Q2出来之后，指数一路暴涨。Q1出来之后，指数继续下跌，随后一个很漂亮的V字反转。这次拭目以待

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-8-13 15:47

08/13/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-8-13 19:37

I just registered an account with hutong. I will mirror my posts there. TMD ... how come it takes so long and my account is still pending there???

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-8-13 23:12

This is a discussion from some other forum:

you label the down trend as abc, so the primary trend is up? can you explain the big picture?

The big picture is:
[[D]].[C].E has completed, and now it's in the progress of [[E]].[A].C.
An alternative count is:
[[V]].[C].E has completed, and now it's in the progress of [[V]].[D].C.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-8-14 01:57

This is a discussion from some other forum:

当[[D]].[C].E 完成后 ...

Here is my count for SP's big picture:

Basically, I treat the 2008-09's big collapse as a [[C]] inside a flat correction starting from 2003:
March-2000 - started this huge flat
December-2002 - [[A]] completed
December-2007 - [[B]] completed
March-2009 - [[C]] completed
OK ... from then there are two possibilities:
1. June-2011 - [[D]] completed (which means a huge [[E]] is on the way), or
2. June-2011 - [[V]].[C] completed (which means an ending [[V]] is on the way), and now it's just close to the end of [[V]].[D]

I don't consider the [[D]].[C].E is a "整个反弹浪" of "08年的下跌5浪" because it has gone too high.

第一张图标志的是A-B-C，后面还应该有反弹浪-D和下跌驱动浪-E的出现

If my count is correct then the answer is NO because it will be the ending of [A] inside a huge [[E]].

那么，比较一下下面的图，两者在08年迄今的范围里，应没有什么分别吧？

They are very similar. One of the major differences is that I label 3-segment waves or unhealty impulsive waves by using abcde instead of 12345.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-8-14 13:24

This is a discussion from some other forum:

如果没看错，结论是：
现在刚走完[[[IV]]].[[E]].[A].C，接着走[[[IV]]].[[E]].[B]，最后在前期高点以及费波纳契的61.8%处完成[[[IV]]].[[E]].[C]。至此，一轮新牛市再次展开。

Yes, [[[IV]]].[[E]].[A].C is about to end (but not done yet). Yes, "接着走[[[IV]]].[[E]].[B]". Yes, "最后在前期高点以及费波纳契的 ... %处完成[[[IV]]].[[E]].[C]". The only thing is that the "..." would not necessarily be "61.8%". It will eventually depend on how the market acts. I am looking at anywhere from 950 to 830 ... where it will be an ideal place to do all-in.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-8-14 13:26

This is a discussion from some other forum:

我的问题是：从[[D]].[C].E.起始的 [[[IV]]].[[E]].[A]浪常态是驱动浪型态，即5浪型态，这是一个重要条件。所以后面会跟出反弹浪D和驱动浪C。
而接下来的调整浪[[[IV]]].[[E]].[B]才会是A-B-C型态。
...

You know that an abc could be 335 or 535. "从[[D]].[C].E.起始的 [[[IV]]].[[E]].[A]浪" dose not need to be a "驱动浪型态，即5浪型态" to be a "条件" of forming a segment of [[D]].[C].E.

...
从第一张图的[[E]].[A].A.到[[E]].[A].C.的形态上看，特别是A与C之间角度的过分差异，是驱动浪的1-2-3（后面还有-4-5）型态。

I agree with that. I have seen some EW technicians categorize that as I-II-III instead of A-B-C. The reason that I tentatively label them as A-B-C is based on the detail wave movement inside each segment. It did not seem to me some 12345 inside A. Please see attachments:

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-8-14 13:27

This is a discussion from some other forum:

... 为什么[[[IV]]].[[E]]是A-B-C型态，是因为[[[IV]]]这个复杂浪段通常以反弹浪A-B-C作结尾的吗？...

Normally, an E wave is a simple wave segment to make a quick final kickout small fishes and then breakout the triangle. However, in our case, we are watch a multi-year (more than a decade) super big formation. IMHO, a complex type is more possible. If we want it to be a simple type, then it will be a real crash like 1987.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-8-18 21:58

08/18/2011 SP Intraday

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-8-20 03:06

08/20/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-8-20 14:24

~~~ Trade with Elliott Wave Principle ~~~

Trading with EW needs to be flexible, and the wave count needs to be adjusted in accordance with the actual market behavior. See the following two charts:

On 08/06/2011, I was guessing that gold's bull run was about ending (because it has reached one of my long term targets ($1690, why that? See the backup at the end).

On Monday 08/08/2011, it gapped up and broke 08/04/'s high. At that moment, an extension was forming, and the wave needed to be recounted.

The following chart is the wave count as of 08/13/2011. The market closed at $1740 on Friday (08/12/2011). The preferred count was seeing it heading to $1800 and then $1850.

The market movement in last week showed a very strong upside momentum. All short term wave targets got fulfilled with minimal effort. The wave-5 showed 5 well-defined waves in its intraday chart. We don't know if there is more extension here again. If so, the next target would be $1960.

How to trade?
1. It's better not to short against the explosive wave-5 because:
1.1 We don't know whether it will have any extension or not.
1.2 There is no meaningful point that a stop order can be placed to protect your position.
2. It's better to try after we have seen a well-defined downside impulsive movement.  Then you know to short when it rebounds, and you know where you can stand against.

Backups:
1. Before the bull took off:  http://groups.wenxuecity.com/discussion.php?gid=921&pid=46960
2. When the bull just started:  http://groups.wenxuecity.com/discussion.php?gid=921&pid=49654
3. Why $1690?

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-8-25 20:27

08/25/2011 SP Intraday

Comments are welcome!

作者: aimei 时间: 2011-8-25 22:23

thank
bullish eyes

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-8-26 02:17

thank
bullish eyes
aimei 发表于 2011-8-25 22:23

Yes! Smart!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-8-27 17:35

08/27/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-8-28 12:19

This is a discussion from some other forum:

USD/JPY对大盘有何指导意义？

You know that all those four (SP, GC, EUR, JPY) are tradable. I really don't relate them each other. I treat them one by one. It really does not matter if SP goes up or down while EUR goes up or down. Keep in mind that anything can happen.

我想你短期看牛，中期看熊，，，，到明年变成大牛...

If you are talking about SP, for now, I actually see this way:
短期看牛 (to 1260)，中期看牛 (to finish wave-[E] by taking out 1370)，到明年变成大熊 (super bearish with multiple years downtrend)

That is just my view as of now. Things change. If the wave structure changes, I'll change my view.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-9-2 23:35

09/02/2011

Comments are welcome!

偶渡假至下週四
若有討論
或許晚上回覆

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-9-10 14:25

09/10/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-9-13 23:16

09/13/2011 SP Intraday

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作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-9-14 00:41

09/14/2011 EUR Intraday

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作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-9-18 00:45

09/17/2011

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作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-9-21 17:47

09/21/2011 SP Intraday

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作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-9-22 17:36

A very destructiv wave-__3 overnight ended wave-D consolidation. The penetration of wave-D-d's starting point sent out a signal that the wave-E has started. The target of wave-E is at around 1080.

Since the market sentiment is very bearish at this moment, a rebound (wave-_4) is expected now. The ideal rebound target is at around 1150 area.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-9-23 00:50

A very destructiv wave-__3 overnight ended wave-D consolidation. The penetration of wave-D-d's star ...
snowrider 发表于 2011-9-22 17:36

09/22/2011 SP Intraday

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-9-23 18:42

09/23/2011 Gold Intraday

Comments are welcome!

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-9-24 17:53

突然间一觉醒来，世界变了

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-9-24 21:21

09/24/2011

Comments are welcome!

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