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标题: [技术分析] Perfect Wave - 2011-Q2 [打印本页]

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-4-2 17:26 标题: Perfect Wave - 2011-Q2

I am starting a new thread for 2011 Q2 (Apr - Jun), including EUR, SP, Gold, and JPY.  My wave counts of last quarter can be found from:
  http://www.yayabay.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=118223

Elliott Wave reference can be found from:
  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

My labeling for wave degrees in different time frames:
Monthly – [[[I]]], [[[II]]], [[[III]]], [[[IV]]], [[[V]]], [[[A]]], [[[B]]], [[[C]]]
Monthly – [[I]], [[II]], [[III]], [[IV]], [[V]], [[A]], [[B]], [[C]]
Weekly – [I], [II], [III], [IV], [V], [A], [B], [C]
Weekly – I, II, III, IV, V, A, B, C
Daily – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, c
Daily – _1, _2, _3, _4, _5, _a, _b, _c
Hourly – __1, __2, __3, __4, __5, __a, __b, __c

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-4-2 17:35

04/02/2011 (Long Term View - Weekly)

Comments are welcome!

作者: pdz 时间: 2011-4-2 23:02

黄金美元都有牛熊两种数法，为什么sp全是熊？为什么0903以来的一定是abc反弹浪，而不是创新高的主升浪？

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-4-3 01:02

黄金美元都有牛熊两种数法，为什么sp全是熊？为什么0903以来的一定是abc反弹浪，而不是创新高的主升浪？
pdz 发表于 2011-4-2 23:02

Thanks for the comment.

Good questions!  Before I answer my question, I want to clarify that my long term view for USD is mix:
  - EUR: long term appreciation (whether EUR's wave-[E] has completed or not)
  - JPY: long term depreciation (whether JPY's wave-[E] has completed or not)

About SP, why my view is a big abc now (i.e., an [A]-[B]-[C] to complete a wave-[[D]] before a big bear wave [[E]])?  Other than the reason that "it's how I feel", let me give you some:

1. The super cycle's correction should have finished in 2009 (from 2000 to 2009) as a huge flat wave ([[A]], [[B]], [[C]]).  If that was the case, the volume of the bull since 2009 till now should have been in an increasing mode, but the volume did not catch up with the bull.

2. Another thing is that a good and healthy bull market should demonstrate some parabolic movement with vertex on the top of the price curve.  Now even though SP is going up, but it is showing unhealthy movement with vertex below the price curve.

3. One more reason is that healthy impulsive waves need to have 5 segments (12345), but the wave count seems to have unhealthy impulsive waves (abced) with 3 mini segments in each segment.

Hope this help.  I'll change my view, if the market can later show something different (e.g., good gradually increasing volume, 5 waves, explosively up ... etc).

作者: aimei 时间: 2011-4-3 18:43

so SP heads south?
But not this week?

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-4-4 13:04

so SP heads south?
But not this week?
aimei 发表于 2011-4-3 18:43

I don't think that it would be so soon.

The wave-A took 5 weeks to complete. If we are in the wave-E now (which has taken 2 weeks already), I will expect the wave still has 2-3 weeks to go.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-4-9 15:13

04/09/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-4-16 23:46

04/16/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-4-24 00:02

04/23/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-5-1 18:24

05/01/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-5-7 02:55

05/07/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-5-14 17:56

05/14/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: axp 时间: 2011-5-15 10:19

for SP500, which senario has higher probability? thanks

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-5-15 11:17

for SP500, which senario has higher probability? thanks
axp 发表于 2011-5-15 10:19

axp - Thanks for asking. Which one has higher probability, I don't know. Things change all the time. The wave has been moving in such an abc formation and formed [C].E wave for a while. I would rather believe that it's still on track to a bear movement (i.e., an 12345 coming) until the wave proves otherwise.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-5-15 11:31

for SP500, which senario has higher probability? thanks
axp 发表于 2011-5-15 10:19

Continue from my previous post ... but if we are in the betting point of view, I have a different view:

At this point (~1338), betting it to go up has better reward vs risk. It's a channel line connecting from the low of 03/16 to 04/18 and then to last week's low. Breaking this line singals the channel line's failure and also invalidates the formation of Ending Diagonal. So ... from the trading (or betting) point of view, buying here 1338 and placing an stop order below 1329 has a risk of 9 points. Where is the reward? If the Ending Diagonal assumption is correct, then we are looking at around 1400 area, which gives you 62 points.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-5-21 14:04

05/21/2011

Many people ask me which color my preferred count is. Now I start labeling that again but with an easier way. The purple line is my preferred count. The wave in gray is the alternative count. Since things change all the time, current view does not reflect the actual view in the week to come.

Comments are welcome!

作者: axp 时间: 2011-5-21 16:22

thanks for sharing. but why wave 2 is lower than wave 1

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-5-21 16:48

thanks for sharing. but why wave 2 is lower than wave 1
axp 发表于 2011-5-21 16:22

Good question!
That situation is called Running Flat pattern, which occurs in some strongly trending movements. In a strong trending bull market, we could see many upward Running Flat corrections (because the demand is so strong that the market does not let the wave-2.c to go below wave-2.a). In a strong trending bear market, it will be the other way around - many downward Running Flat corrections, which is why the wave-2.b goes below wave-1.
Hope this help.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-5-28 23:40

05/28/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-6-4 22:11

06/04/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-6-6 09:27

The following is my conversation with someone from another forum:

Thank for gold count.
Do you have Silver too ???

You are welcome. I don't trade silver. The following is what I see from silver's chart:

1. The low of 05/12/2011 is 50% retracement of a 5-wave bull run since 2010-Feb. Therefore a bounce occured from there.
2. The high of 05/26/2011 (or 05/31/2011) is the 38.2% correction of the fall from 2011-Apr.

Conclusion:
Right now, it's in a consolidation. It's hard to tell where it is heading to.
1. If the high of 05/31/2011 is penetrated, it could see 50% correction next ($41 area)
2. If the low of 05/12/2011 is penetrated, it could see 61.8% retracement. I hate to say that it's around $28 and previous wave-4 (of the bull run since 2010-Feb)

Given that I bet the gold to have a big 2-week fall, you know what I mean if I have to trade silver (but I don't trade silver). Good luck!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-6-6 09:33

She posted a chart and asked me again:

This is my silver count, can you please comment your idea? I'm bullish. I believe silver will reach $40 before open new lower.
...

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-6-6 09:41

My answer to her post:

You are welcome to post your charts/counts in this thread, and that is what I want because I want to know how people see the market. Your chart looks very good. Before I make any comment, let's take a look the intraday waves of silver.

From the daily chart, it's hard for us to know if the wave from 05/12/2011 low to last week's high is an impulsive wave of a corrective wave. After seeing the intraday pattern, it seems to be a corrective wave (with 3 segments: a, b, c). The wave c is a classic one with 5 segments (_1, _2, _3, _4, _5) with one complex (_2) and one simple (_1) corrections inside. After the 3 segments, we see a impulsive mini 5 segments down. Is that the C.1, or is that still in the B (i.e., B.b)? We need the market to confirm.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-6-6 10:02

She did not seem to understand what I said, so she asked again to clarify:

snowrider, my english is not good, sorry.
In your chart above, you mean we have a FLAT 3-3-5? And that FLAT is wave B of higher ZIGZAG?
...

You are welcome.  From my chart, we see there is an a-b-c up and then a 5 mini segements down.  I mark "1 ???" for that down wave.  It could be:

1. A new big down wave has started, so the 5 mini segements down are actually the down wave 1 of bigger wave C.  (See your chart has big A-B-C down waves.) Then a big collapse is on the way.

2. The 5 mini segements down could be still in a complex correction of big wave B.  In this case, it will be the wave-b of bigger wave-B (in your chart).  Then the market will move up to your chart's 50% to finish wave-B.

作者: aimei 时间: 2011-6-6 23:03

ooooopse
Just read it
How I feel SILVER will be down tomorrow
Like your posts even not fully understand
lol

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-6-11 13:45

The following is a discussion in some other forum:

snowrider, can you please share your U/J weekly or monthly count? I'm interest in this chart, but do not know when to begin. My chart begin at 1 Apr 1989 and it's hard to count this chart ( impluse or corrective wave???)

Please see the attached chart. One of the reasons that JPY is not easy to count and to trade is about its current wave. From the chart, you can see that it has formed a huge triangle since 1994. I count that triangle as wave-[[IV]]. The current wave could be the wave-[[V]], which is ending the long term appreciation of Yen.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-6-11 16:01

06/11/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: 棋王 时间: 2011-6-12 01:01

Thanks!
I like your post!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-6-18 13:58

06/18/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-6-22 22:38

06/22/2011

Comments are welcome!

EUR - The preferred count not changed yet
JPY - The preferred count not changed yet (but the alternative count might be taking over)
Gold - The preferred count not change yet. We might have seen the peak today (06/22/2011). Next move is a crash.
SP - The preferred count is still long term bearish. The best move for big bear is a false break to upside then crash - peak at around Friday noon.

图片附件: 20110622 SP - Intraday.png (2011-6-22 22:37, 97.27 KB) / 下载次数 44
http://ftp.yayabay.com/forum/attachment.php?aid=368306&k=59336f7074c4236f65c2e9b85242bb39&t=1735934695&sid=uRA95C

作者: aimei 时间: 2011-6-26 08:46

本帖最后由 aimei 于 2011-6-26 08:47 编辑

THank millions
Snow Laoda's posts are just simply of BEAUTY
Enjoy your posts every time
Hug and wish U won't melt down ::::::::::::::::::

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-6-26 13:34

06/26/2011

Comments are welcome!

作者: aimei 时间: 2011-6-26 17:38

Eyeing

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-6-29 23:55

06/29/2011

Comments are welcome!

Case-1:  C  D  [[D]].[C].E  1  2  3  4  5
... to resume the bearish move

Case-2:  C  D  [[D]].[C].E  A(abc)  B(abc)  C
... to form the R shoulder of a huge H&S top

Case-3:  C  D(abc x abc)  [[D]].[C].E(12345)
... to peak at around 1386

Gold - preferred wave count not changed yet
EUR - preferred wave count not changed yet
JPY - preferred wave count not changed yet

作者: 棋王 时间: 2011-6-30 00:06

雪骑熊心不减啊，嘻嘻
谢谢！

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-6-30 00:29

雪骑熊心不减啊，嘻嘻
谢谢！
棋王发表于 2011-6-30 00:06

王琪 - Thanks. I am still holding my light long position on the index futures since ... I cannot remember when. My stock holding has very little change: DELL, LCC, UAL, ONNN (Tuesday), BBD (Wednesday). The stock holdings are for 長期後備部隊, but the futures trading is the real deal for 短期前鋒部隊.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-6-30 00:30

Therefore, please help me out and tell me what I am? A bull, a bear, or a wolf?

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-6-30 23:16

Where We Stand Now

06/30/2011

Q - Why is SP's preferred wave count in daily chart a bearish one for semi long term?
A - A convincing answer for general public is the google result of "stock seasonal trend". However, to us EW believers, the real answer is that a super bull (wave-[[[V]]]) will be coming after the bear market ends.

Scenario-1:
A giant multi-year triangle forming
the super cycle's wave-[[[IV]]] will
complete in 800-900 area
sometimes next year, and then a
super bull wave-[[[V]]] starts

However, if the market continues being manipulated and rejecting the gravity, a real doomsday will come eventually. In that case, when all resorts are depleted, the market will hard to come back in decade.

Scenario-2:
If the super cycle's wave-[[[IV]]]
has completed in an flat abc format
in 2009, we now are in wave-[[[V]]]
(the the final phase of the bull market)

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-7-1 14:34

来研究一下, 能不能说说你给了几个SENARIO的意义? 对实际操作上说

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-1 14:39

来研究一下, 能不能说说你给了几个SENARIO的意义? 对实际操作上说
not4weak 发表于 2011-7-1 14:34

我說我不跟你槓了, 你怎麼又跑來這裡找我槓?

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-7-1 14:51

回复 40# snowrider
这不是杠，凡是好东东，　都要经得起推敲．
你和我讨论了半天，我们都不清楚讨论啥．

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-1 15:48

回复 snowrider
这不是杠，凡是好东东，　都要经得起推敲．
你和我讨论了半天，我们都不清楚讨论啥．
not4weak 发表于 2011-7-1 14:51

OK. To answer your question, I must ask you a question first. Do you believe in EW?

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-7-1 16:05

回复 42# snowrider
Of course, I have studied that for a while. That is still TA, a different kind.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-1 16:13

Yes, that is a TA approach. That deals with price action/pattern/behavior. It's easy to understand but hard to master though.

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-7-1 16:18

回复 44# snowrider
That is based on Fibonacci theory, in fact, nothing but following the nature's law.

That is probably the reason you gave two directions. But this way, it is barely useful for you.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-1 16:21

Sometimes the alternative count has the same direction as that of the preferred count. Sometimes they are of different directions. In order to apply EW in trading, the first thing is that you need to know where you stand at.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-1 17:17

本帖最后由 snowrider 于 2011-7-1 23:44 编辑

With that said, if you know that you are at the end of wave-b, then you know that a wave-c will be coming.  If you know that you are at the end of wave-4, then you know that a wave-5 is coming.

07/01/2011  11:43 PM

This thread is closed.  Please visit the new one:
http://www.yayabay.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=145407

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