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标题: [读书学习] 读后感系列贴 (II) [打印本页]
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-1-26 08:13     标题: 读后感系列贴 (II)

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/hamilton012111.html

有说服力。

此位置MM应该是想出货，逼空是其手段。
既然逼空，一要狠，二时间不会太久，4天左右。
所以我关注本周四五/下周一二，看有没有做空时机。
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-1-27 09:26

以前的帖子在 "读后感系列贴"
http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D3
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-1-27 09:26

http://www.hutong9.net/viewthrea ... rid=1650&page=2
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p97819578376&a=136031082&listNum=3
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2338271.html


老蛇说“XLF和XLE有一定的反向关系：当XLE ourperform的时候XLF会underperform，反之，亦然。”
所以这次比灵通比较倒霉。
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-1-28 08:42

http://www.hutong9.net/viewthrea ... &extra=page%3D1

AMZN ER后一天是大盘反指，IBM ER后一天是大盘正指？
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-1-31 08:33

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2341121.html

这次chicagoshwind很拉风吗，开始关注此人。
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-1-31 09:31

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D3
http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D3

小番茄这次信息及时。
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-1 08:16

http://www.hutong9.net/viewthrea ... 1&authorid=5733
http://www.hutong9.net/viewthrea ... &extra=page%3D1

星星认为美股调整结束了，另外美元强势。
So far 美元的走势可不好。
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-2 09:18

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1

“新高。。。。。。维持原判1335.。。。后面才会有比较像样的回调”

这次蓉儿成功的希望大。
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-4 10:07

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/vermeulen020311.html

“In short, the Nasdaq, Russell and Dow Transport indexes typically lead the market.”　它们显示弱势。

“The US Dollar is trading down at a key support level and if we get a bounce and possibly even a rally then we could see a sizable correction in stocks and commodities across the board. ”
作者: 何鸿燊    时间: 2011-2-4 19:29

9# ychen222


USD rallied today, Oil dropped, but big board index is helped by tech stocks.
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-7 10:06

两周前（1/23）我说“周图BB（20，2）下轨2260，月图MA（20）的2255。”

按上周五的计算周图BB（20，2）下轨在2342，月图MA（20）的2302。
等会儿开盘后位置将再次更新。

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作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-8 09:15

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1


若出现类似2004年的回调，MA（20）是1123，MA（50）是1197。
MA（50）方向还是向下的，至少应该回去拉一下。
作者: 棋王    时间: 2011-2-8 23:35

老陈的帖子俺受益颇多。谢谢！
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-9 09:09

http://www.trader1688.com/bb/vie ... p;sd=a&start=15

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2356974.html

蓉儿说“顶还早着呢”，而捣乱者已经投入战略空仓，看这次鹿死谁手。
我眼下觉得NASDAQ在2830出中期顶的可能性大。
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-10 09:32

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/roy-byrne020811.html

长期国债最近几个月惨了点，技术上看可能还能跌一些，这对当前股市有利。

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作者: 何鸿燊    时间: 2011-2-10 14:14

15# ychen222


通胀预期来了。 这是好事。 债市的钱会继续下来， 一部分会继续向股市回流。
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-10 15:11

债券一般比股市走得早一点。
所以若TLT不能走出老蛇的3.0.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily)下跌通道，股市大熊难。
作者: 何鸿燊    时间: 2011-2-10 22:18

17# ychen222


Why buy bond now? In intermediate to long run, interest rate will only have one-way to go ---- up.  Every bounce will be short-able.
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-11 09:57

17# ychen222


Why buy bond now? In intermediate to long run, interest rate will only have one-way to go ---- up.  Every bounce will be short-able.
何鸿燊 发表于 2011-2-10 21:18



我没说现在买国债，我是说TLT在下跌通道里。
以后TLT当然有涨破下跌通道的一天。

不过现在TNX再大涨也难了，需要休息一下。

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作者: 何鸿燊    时间: 2011-2-11 14:14

19# ychen222


哈哈哈。偶不是指责也不是反问。只是加强语气。

恭喜发财！
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-14 08:24

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ciovacco021111.html

“The S&P 500 was able to break above both moving average bands in late 2010, which was a major milestone for the bulls. Should the market experience a correction of 7% to 8%, the intersection of the two moving average bands near 1,200 will offer a very difficult barricade for the bear to penetrate, especially on the first attempt.”

“A good rule of thumb in the markets is if anyone tells you they know what is going to happen, stop listening or stop reading. If the speaker or analysis uses terms like odds, probabilities, and possible outcomes, review their arguments with an open mind and make your own call.”

这张图很有信息量。若把中期调整的目标订在1137-1232（最可能1180?），对应的NASDAQ点位是2500。我本来怀疑2830-2500=330（中位2665）是一个波段，而一个强跌势往往包含连续两个类似跌波，所以猜测中期走法可能是：
（1）涨到3020做中期顶
（2）3020-330=2690（中位2855）
（3）从2690反弹到2830
（4）2830-330=2500
当前是要涨向3020，而2855附近应该类似2665，盘整一段时间。

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作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-15 09:15

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... rvlet?obj=ID3400916

Golden cross

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作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-16 08:57

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/jones021411.html

文章提出1440为一个重要的长期阻力位置。
按21#里对NASDAQ的算法，对应SP500前一波是1335-1175=160（中位1255），后一波将是1435-1275=160（中位1355），所以下面就看市场是否横于1355。
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-17 08:12

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/summers021411.html

“The Chinese stock market has been leading the S&P 500 for years. It bottomed a full four months before the S&P 500 (November 2008 vs. March 2009) during Round 1 of the Financial Crisis.”

若严格按4个月算，当前美股处于A股10月中最后冲刺之前，A股最后冲到11月中迎来大调整，所以美股也将最后冲刺到3月中，然后大调整？

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作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-18 08:46

24#里的文章说中国A股在关键位置，现在中国收紧银根动作频频，照这个样子FXI破42有困难了。文章说A股领先美股，所以引申的问题就是美股牛市到底有多少生命力呢？

胡同的X!nG说当前是A股的历史低位，可高盛又说热钱回流发达国家，最后结果到底如何，拭目以待。

http://pop.6park.com/finance/messages/55953.html
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-18 10:05

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/yun021611.html

“Decline in Treasury Yield Ratio Suggests Continuing U.S. Stock Bull-Market”

“Breakout of Cup-with-Handle Pattern Suggests Further Upside for S&P500”
“ The market then broke out the upside of the cup-with-handle pattern in the early part of last December and has an upside price target projected at 1440.”

“Last Friday, 2/11/2011, the ratio broke out to the upside from the upper boundary of the triangle which indicates that the U.S. stock market is gaining strength as the international markets decline driven by inflation concerns especially in the emerging markets like India, China, and Brazil. Tightening monetary policies to fight inflation in those countries could add pressure on their stock markets and other emerging markets could also continue underperforming. It is also a bullish sign for the U.S. dollar because the strength ratio is a leading indicator for the U.S. dollar index.”

看来SP500的1440目标是合理的。
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-23 07:50

17#提到的TLT通道破了，25#里说的FXI没能破42。
当然这仅仅是这一两天的发展，苗头能否成势，值得密切关注。
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-24 08:48

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/roy-byrne022211.html

“In our 2011 Market Outlook we called for the market to peak in April or May possibly as high as 1500.”

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作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-25 09:25

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/summers022311.html

"As you can see, the US Dollar has dropped AGAIN and is on its way to test its multi-year trendline. We are literally approaching the "bounce or die" moment for this currency. If the US Dollar breaks below this line it's GAME OVER for the currency. We will be seeing an inflationary collapse followed by potential hyperinflation.

The one thing which could potentially reverse this situation right now is the political elections in Europe.
...."
作者: not4weak    时间: 2011-2-25 16:47

29# ychen222

Very interesting.

If the dollar collapse, what would you do?
作者: not4weak    时间: 2011-2-25 18:08

Really worried about that US dollar thing. It is very close to collapse.
作者: 大傻    时间: 2011-2-25 21:40

Nothing is going to collapse.

Sleep well, eat well.


29# ychen222

Very interesting.

If the dollar collapse, what would you do?
not4weak 发表于 2011-2-25 15:47
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-2-26 23:15

本帖最后由 ychen222 于 2011-2-26 22:16 编辑

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/radomski022511.html

美元地位还是有的，只是破位以后再回78就难了，尤其是欧元没有大的政治上的意外的话。

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作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-1 10:04

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/connor022811.html

"As you can see the dollar is now moving into the timing band for that major spike down in the next 2 to 3 months."

若USD真的大跌，股市至少账面上会受大益。
作者: 何鸿燊    时间: 2011-3-2 15:37

33# ychen222


MACD 0点一下死叉。不妙啊/
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-3 08:54

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/tzlc/292376.html

“FED 势将 QE 进行到底，别和 FED 作对。

     笨大叔选择 QE2，实为无奈的选择。 与其说为了对付中国，逼人民币升值，不如说更多的是为了自救。笨大叔明白减小债务 （主要是国外持有的美国国债）刺激经济最有效和直接的办法就是制造 Inflation, 推高股市，别无选择。 至于造成其 Emerging Market (如中国，印度，巴西 等）的通膨只是连带作用。 而这个负作用只对新兴国家有害，对美国有利，这如同中了双奖，这等好事，为何不想方设法进行到底？  由于本次金融危机摧毁了美国的很大一部分财富，短期并不容易恢复，加上高失业率，美国在较长的时期里不容易有通货膨胀。 让遭受重创的银行和金融系统 Re-Capitalize， 只有坚持 QE, 推高股市。 这是一场豪赌，是在用美国的国家信用豪赌。 赌在债务气泡吹破之前，经济可以有实质的恢复，然后再逐步泄气，减压。 这项政策有着极大的风险，但目前仍在可控的范围中。

    另一方面，新兴国家控制通膨已经成为超过发展的第一优先的任务，这使国际热钱开始回流美国。 在新一轮基金投资流向中，流向新兴国家的比例已经从过去几年的 55% 大幅下降到 5%，而同期流向美国的比例增加了 34%。

   另一个来源是债市。 US Retail Investor 自 2008 年初到 2010 年初从股市中撤走 $274-billion, 并把累计 $672-billion 的资金投入 Bond Fund。 而现在资金开始反向流动。 从去年 11 月到今年 2月，已经有超过 30-billion 的资金从 Bond Fund 流入股市。 这还只是开始。 随着通膨的预期增加，这一趋势还将加速。

  这些都是股市能维持上涨的根本因素。 在 QE2 结束前， FED 仍可能找到理由推出 QE3。 笨大叔在最近的媒体采访中已经暗示的这种可能。  在现在的市场环境下，不要做空市场。 等待机会，待市场企稳后果断入市，回有比较好的收获。 股市在这波调整完成后，仍新高可期。”

有这等好事？今年不但不升息，还会有QE3？
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-4 08:46

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ciovacco030211.html

"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled he's in no rush to tighten credit after the Fed finishes an expansion of record monetary stimulus, seeing little inflation risk and still-slow job growth. A surge in the prices of oil and other commodities probably won't generate a lasting rise in inflation, Bernanke told lawmakers yesterday in semiannual testimony on monetary policy. A "sustained period of stronger job creation" is needed to ensure a solid recovery, and the Fed's benchmark rate will stay low for an "extended period," he said."

"Those who are calling for the Fed to raise rates in response to rising oil prices are underestimating the Fed's focus on asset prices, balance sheets, and employment. We agree with the comments below, which also appeared via Bloomberg this morning:

"Things will not change materially with regards to monetary policy in 2011 and perhaps heading out into 2012," said Brian Levitt, New York-based economist at Oppenheimer Funds Inc., which manages $182 billion. "They will complete Quantitative Easing 2, and the fed funds rate will remain effectively at zero for the rest of the year.""

反过来想的话，可能越是不好的就业，对股市越有利。
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-7 09:17

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/vermeulen030311.html

“You will see that in both 2009 and 2010 we saw a 5-8% correction down to the key moving averages. I feel that we are in store for a similar pullback in 2011. After that we will most likely continue higher.”

这次会跌破128？

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作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-7 09:19

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/swenlin030411.html

"Bottom Line: The Dollar Index has broken down through important long-term rising trend line support. A similar breakdown in November proved to be a of no consequence, but technical indicators are less favorable this time around, so we should expect the decline to continue longer-term, although, a short-term snapback toward the line would be a normal technical reaction."

石油黄金可能都是看好美元大跌，那么股市呢？按说应该涨。
作者: 何鸿燊    时间: 2011-3-7 09:27

38# ychen222

还有一个月时间, 有可能的.
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-8 08:59

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/doolittle030511.html

"Fed is still fighting slow-moving money and not inflation."

按他是说法，FED宽松银根会持续很长时间，不惜商品股市泡沫。
不知这个velocity of money指标是滞前还是滞后的指标？

"For a variety of technical reasons that I cover each and every night, I think such a move is more likely than not in the coming weeks and it is for all such reasons, and mainly a bearish Broadening Formation, that I have set a near-term target of 1,240 on the S&P500."
作者: not4weak    时间: 2011-3-8 21:05

41# ychen222
I don't know why would FED continue to pump the stock market.
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-9 08:54

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/radomski030811.html

"That is, stocks appear poised to resume their rally as the current pause builds a foundation for another move up. In other words, the recent sideways price action above the levels of the August, 2008 highs leads us to a bullish outlook for the weeks ahead. "

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作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-10 08:26

胡同9/viewthread.php?tid=111484&extra=page%3D2

胡同的X!nG虽然认为美股应该“砸锅卖铁买入”，但加了一个条件“只要铜没有跟随下跌。”
眼下铜已经跌破至年内最低，头肩顶可能出现，出大麻烦啦？

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作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-11 08:46

铜的头肩顶成立的话，颈线4200到顶4600是400点，那么也许要跌到3800，去年11月中下旬位置。
对应股市就是NASDAQ的2500点，SP500的1180点。

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作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-14 08:19

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/vermeulen031311.html

看着挺吓人的。
这次也许需要更当心，不（或小小量）抢底，等弹上去（如果有的话）再追。

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作者: not4weak    时间: 2011-3-14 13:34

46# ychen222

散们一定习惯了抄"底", 你说呢
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-15 08:29

看看美国2001年911以后的大V，这次若走大V的话，跌到2500/2250也不是不可能。
日本2天不就跌掉16%。

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作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-16 08:24

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/connor031411.html

"In any case it is time to exit all general stock market funds and position oneself in cash to ride out the next leg down in the secular bear market."

目前为止此人以前预测的美元大跌还没有实现。
我还是觉得中期不能肯定熊，股市涨其实阻力小，现在调一调是搞掉技术上超买。

图片附件: connor031411b.png (2011-3-16 08:24, 77.53 KB) / 下载次数 36
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作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-17 07:21

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG

铜又收复了颈线42000。
失败的头肩顶反向报复也是相当凶狠的。

图片附件: a.png (2011-3-17 07:21, 62.37 KB) / 下载次数 24
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作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-18 08:12

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/vermeulen031711.html

“As you can see this indicator is currently trading in the lower reversal zone and I feel a bottom will form before March is over.”

“Looking at the bottom indicator which is my gauge of panic selling within the market, it has yet to close above 15 which is the minimum number I typically look for before I start zooming into the intraday charts for a long entry (market bottom). We still could see much lower prices before we see that.”

图片附件: vermeulen031711b.jpg (2011-3-18 08:12, 86.08 KB) / 下载次数 46
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作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-21 07:40

本帖最后由 ychen222 于 2011-3-21 08:10 编辑

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/doolittle031811.html

此文说DOW已经到达Diamond Top目标，SP500还差一点，NASDAQ不够，罗素2000和XLF则差得远。
到底DOW是领军的角色还是没事瞎捣乱的角色，拭目以待。

"As I have been writing about for weeks now, the 10-year yield's been caught in what looks like a Symmetrical Triangle of its own and particularly with this week's spike down in yield.

This chart, however, suggests that a much bigger spike down in yield is to come and one that will be put in between about 2.75% and 3.00%.

If the 10-year yield should spike down in such a manner as investors push the price up in a fast flight to safety, such a move would be the very thing to confirm that the risk rally had, in fact, suffered a cruel correction as risk is shunned and safety sought."

图片附件: doolittle031811m.gif (2011-3-21 08:10, 14.79 KB) / 下载次数 42
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作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-22 08:06

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... rvlet?obj=ID3400916

牛牛现在占主动不假，但占优势还算不上。

图片附件: a.png (2011-3-22 08:06, 75.77 KB) / 下载次数 20
http://ftp.yayabay.com/forum/attachment.php?aid=282350&k=f9973773fbdf71227826e1af9a7aae0a&t=1736382765&sid=HG55Ky

作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-23 08:00

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG

最近才注意铜的走势，见3/10，3/11的贴，当时铜破位，而那时股市还算不上破位。
现在铜似乎已经明确地恢复牛势，而股市还在关键阻力下徘徊，股市要跟上来吗？
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-24 07:57

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1

小草的CPC图还是很经典的。
作者: ychen222    时间: 2011-3-25 07:31

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1

“本帖最后由 停车坐爱 于 2011-3-24 15:23 编辑 9# 停车坐爱

只有稳定美元，转嫁危机，才能让地球跟着美国转。只有FED买债，才能解放米国人民，只有解放米国人民，才能有O8的连任。。。
ctcld 发表于 2011-3-24 15:07
美元只需要相对于别国的稳定！---君不见他国之通涨之猛于虎！在美国，我们却仍然相对来说，没有感受到太大压力！

这就是美国的险恶之处！---杀人一万，自损三千！损他人更多，相当于利己！

这是美国金融危机导致经济衰退后的损人救己的唯一方法！---短期内，可能成功！长期来说，估计全球人民要对美国进行茉莉花革命！ ”

这听着好似有道理。



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