[转贴] March 23, 2014 Weekend Market Update

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The main take-away from last week was the tectonic shift of debt markets after Fed Chair Yellen’s perceived hawkish comments quickly rocketed yields with the realization of an eventual rate hike.  The 10 year touched a week high 2.80% before finally settling at 2.75% on Friday. US equity markets were mostly mixed for the week as the S&P 500 (SPX) quickly retreated from all-time highs obtained early Friday to settle near session lows.  The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (RUT) faltered just below all-time highs and finished soft in light of its continued outperformance of the broader markets.



Gold Futures (/GC) experienced its weakest five day performance so far this year after heavy selling pressure followed the Fed Testimony on Wednesday.  Crude Oil (/CL) consolidated off the same news and eventually finished the week just below the century mark of $99.55 a barrel.  The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed at $15 which was near the mid-point of the week’s overall range.



The Geo-political climate will likely dominate headlines for the upcoming week with several key Presidential meetings kicking off in The Hague.  Russia will almost certainly be the focal point as President Obama and the rest of the G-7 scrambles to diffuse the Ukrainian crisis before an irreversible global economic impact is felt.  Markets will also be closely monitoring several impending Federal Reserve speeches during the same period to see if Janet Yellen’s hawkish sentiment is embraced throughout the ranks.



Also in play for the upcoming week will be multiple housing statistics ushering in the critical buying season in the wake of both rising rates and home prices.  Personal spending and income numbers will also measure how the harsh weather has effected the overall economic health of consumers.  Earnings continue to wind down for the quarter with the exception of a few note-worthy retailers revealing more on the spending mood of customers.



Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday: N/A

Tuesday: CCL, FIVE, WAG

Wednesday: FRAN, PAYX, VRNT

Thursday: CONN, GME, LULU, RH, RHT, WGO

Friday: BBRY



Economic Releases (3/24-3/28):



Monday:

8:45 am CT – Flash Manufacturing PMI

8:00 am CT – Case-Shiller Housing Price Index (HPI)



Tuesday:

9:00 am CT – CB Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Richmond Manufacturing Index

3:00 pm CT – FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

6:00 pm CT – FOMC Member Plosser Speaks



Wednesday:

7:30 am CT – Core Durable Goods

8:45 am CT – Flash Services PMI

9:30 am CT – Crude Oil Inventories

3:30 pm CT – Bank Stress Test Results



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks

7:30 am CT – GDP

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

8:30 pm CT – FOMC Member Evans speaks



Friday:

7:30 am CT – Core PCE Price Index  

7:30 am CT – Personal Spending /Income  

8:55 am CT – University of Michigan Sentiment/Inflation Expectations

12:15 pm CT – FOMC Member George Speaks